Quarterly Global Outlook 4Q2009
UOB Economic-Treasury Research

Growing 2.3% q/q on a seasonally adjusted basis, the technical recession which began in the last quarter of 2008, has ended.  A look at the key industries of the economy,  however,  still show weakness persisting.

Exports,  which make up more than 60% of GDP,  also seem to be falling further,  with no sign of recovery.

Overall,  we think Thailand?s economy,  like the rest of the global economy,  looks to be on the recovery path.  But the sustainability of the recovery pattern largely depends on whether the economy can stand on its own when the fiscal stimulus package runs out.

Thailand?s central bank kept the benchmark one-day bond repurchase rate unchanged at 1.25%.  We expect the BoT to raise rates in the 3Q of 2010,  when the growth of the economy is on a more sustained path.

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